Essay on Estimates of Unemployment in India – Though the problem of unemployment is growing in an unmanageable proportion we do not have authentic information regarding the exact number of unemployed persons in India.
It is regrettable that institutions such as Planning Commission; National Sample Survey, and the Central Statistical Organization (or the Indian Statistical Institute) have not made any systematic and satisfactory attempt to collect authentic information about unemployment.
We have, however, three sources to collect some statistics regarding the extent of unemployment in India. They are: (i) The National Census which is held once in ten years; (ii) The National sample Survey; and (iii) The Employment Exchange Registrations. Of these, the information collected through the National Sample Survey is being used widely.
Image Source: adelaidereview.com.au
ADVERTISEMENTS:
Neither the Census Reports, nor the Directorate – General of Employment and Training [D.G.E.T], nor the Employment Exchanges nor any other agency, could give any dependable quantitative estimate of the magnitude of the problem.
The statistics which we obtain through these three sources cannot be considered as highly authentic and foolproof. Many a times, they are to be treated only as approximations or rough estimates.
These estimates very often take into consideration the number of persons registered in the employment exchange and these exchanges cover mainly the urban areas. Rural areas are not covered by them. Since registration with the employment exchange is voluntary, all the unemployed do not go for registration.
ADVERTISEMENTS:
Further, some people who are already in some ordinary jobs also go for registration for they intend to secure some good jobs. These exchanges may not supply full information about people who are “unemployed”.
Some Estimates of Unemployment in India:
(i) The number of unemployed persons in India registered in the employment exchanges in 1952 was 4.37 lakhs and it increased to 334 lakhs in 1990.
(ii) Between 1952 and 1970, that is, within the time interval of 18 years, the number of registered unemployed persons had increased about 8 times; and between 1971 and 1990 it got increased by 6.8 times. By the end of December 1991, the number of unemployed people had reached 36.3 million.
ADVERTISEMENTS:
(iii) Estimates of Bhagavathi Committee:
As per the estimates of this Committee, there were 18.7 million unemployed persons in the country in 1971 out of which 16.1 million were in rural areas and 2.6 million in urban areas. As per the figures for 2003, about 41.39 million individuals were waiting (for jobs) in the live registers of 945 employment exchanges scattered over the whole nation.
(iv) NSSO Estimates:
As per the 55th NASSO Round of reports (1990-2000), the absolute number of unemployed increased from 20 million in 1993-94 to 27 million in 1990-2000. Out of this 27 million unemployed individuals, 7.11 million were in urban areas and 19.50 million people were in rural areas.
(v) Planning Commission Estimates of 8th and 9th Plan:
“The total numbers of persons requiring employment during the 8th Plan (as per the estimates of Planning Commission) would be around 65 million. It is expected that during 1995-2000, labour force would increase by 41 million. Thus by the year 2000 A.D., the total number of job-seekers would be around 106 million. ”
Some Salient Features of Unemployment Problem in India:
We may identify the following as some special features of unemployment in India.
1. Unemployed people are not equally distributed in all the states of India. For example, more than half the total unemployed persons live in three states of northern India [as per the statistics of 1990s] that is, West Bengal, Bihar, and U.P. and two states of south India, that is Kerala and Tamilnadu.
2. As per the Census report of 1991, excepting rural Kerala and urban Orissa in almost all other places, there has been an increase in the number of female employees. Of the total number of women of employable age, about 19.19% in the rural areas and about 8.63% in the urban areas were found to be fully fledged employees.
3. In spite of this increase in the number of female employees, unemployment rates for women are higher than those for men.
4. The incidence of unemployment is relatively lower in rural areas and higher in urban areas.
5. There is greater unemployment in agricultural sector than in industrial and other sectors.
6. The incidence of unemployment among the educated is much higher (about 12%) than overall unemployment that is found in the nation [that is 3.8%].
7. Finally, the growth of employment per annum is only about 2 per cent.