India accounts for 2.4 per cent of the world surface area but it has 16.7 per cent of the world population. As per the 2001 census the population of India in 2001 was 102 crore. Thus India is the second country in the world to cross 1 billion mark, the first one being China.
However, keeping in view the fact that China has a much lower population growth rate (1.4 per cent per year) compared to India’s 1.93 per cent per year, India is likely to overtake China within a few decades. Change in the size of population takes place through three demographic events: birth, death and migration. In the Indian economy migration has played a negligible role in population growth. Thus population growth is largely due to higher birth rate than death rate.
In an economy there is a pattern in which demographic transition takes place. Such transition can be divided into three stages. It has been observed that when the level of development is low in an economy both birth rate and death rate are high. As a result population growth rate is not that high. This is the first stage of demographic transition. When economic development takes place the economy moves on to the second stage – death rate declines due to availability of health facilities and medicines but birth rate continues to remain high.
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This is the stage when there is a wide gap between birth rate and death rate, and population increases sharply. With further economic development, the economy moves on to the third stage – both birth rate and death rate are low. Consequently, population growth rate is again low in the third stage. All the developed economies are in the third stage of demographic transition. In the case of India during the pre-independence period both birth rate and death rate were quite high. As a result, population grew at a lower rate. Population growth rate during 1950-51 was only 1.25 per cent per annum. However, population growth rate accelerated afterwards and reached a peak during 1980-81. A positive sign is that in the recent census the annual population growth rate has come down below 2 per cent. Some of the states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Punjab have reached a reasonably lower birth rate.
However, in some of the major states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh population growth rate is very high. Life expectancy indicates the number of years a newborn child is expected to survive. It has increased from about 32 years in 1950-51 to more than 60 years at present. As a result, the percentage of the aged people in India has increased. On the other hand, a decline in birth rate has resulted in a decline in the percentage of children in the country.